TABLE 16-11
Business Closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 1989 to 1994

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 1989 to 1994 were:
$$\begin{array} { l l } 1993 & 10 \\1994 & 11 \\1995 & 13 \\1996 & 19 \\1997 & 24 \\1998 & 35\end{array}$$ Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT-2nd Order
Model
$\begin{array}{lc} & \text { Coefficients } \\\text { Intercept } & -5.77 \\\text { XVariable 1 } & 0.80 \\\text { XVariable 2 } & 1.14\end{array}$

$\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT-1st Order}$
$\text {Model}$

$\begin{array}{ll} & \text { Coefficients } \\\text { Intercept } & -4.16\end{array}$

$\underline{\text {XVariable \(1 \quad 1.59\)}}$
-Referring to Table 16-11, the values of the MAD for the two models indicate that the first-order model should be used for forecasting.