Lucia reported to her father that she saw a hummingbird in their backyard.Her father,however,knows that hummingbirds are extremely rare in that part of the country.In this situation

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Although Lucia's diagnostic information points toward the conclusion that she saw a hummingbird, her father's knowledge of the base rate of hummingbirds in that area points toward a different conclusion. The base rate is the background rate of occurrence of a particular event, and in this case, the base rate of hummingbirds in that area is low. Therefore, even though there is diagnostic information (Lucia's report), it must be interpreted in light of the low base rate, which points toward the conclusion that Lucia likely did not see a hummingbird.

Lucia Reported to Her Father That She Saw a Hummingbird