A man owns an Audi, a Ford, and a VW. He drives everyday and never drives the same car two days in a row. These are the probabilities that he drives each of the other cars the next day:
Pr(Ford after Audi) = 0.5
Pr(VW after Audi) = 0.5
Pr(Audi after Ford) = 0.6
Pr(VW after Ford) = 0.4
Pr(Audi after VW) = 0.9
Pr(Ford after VW) = 0.1

If he drove the Ford on Monday, what is the probability that he will drive the VW on Wednesday?

Question

A man owns an Audi, a Ford, and a VW. He drives everyday and never drives the same car two days in a row. These are the probabilities that he drives each of the other cars the next day: ​
Pr(Ford after Audi) = 0.5
Pr(VW after Audi) = 0.5
Pr(Audi after Ford) = 0.6
Pr(VW after Ford) = 0.4
Pr(Audi after VW) = 0.9
Pr(Ford after VW) = 0.1
​
If he drove the Ford on Monday, what is the probability that he will drive the VW on Wednesday?
​

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The probability of driving the VW on Wednesday is 0.3. This is because the probability of driving the Audi on Tuesday is 0.6, and the probability of driving the VW on Wednesday after driving the Audi on Tuesday is 0.5. Therefore, the probability of driving the VW on Wednesday is 0.6 * 0.5 = 0.3.

A Man Owns an Audi, a Ford, and a VW