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The Monthly Sales Revenue (In Hundreds of Dollars) of a Company

Question 56

Essay

The monthly sales revenue (in hundreds of dollars) of a company for one year is listed below.  Month  Sales ($100s) January 12,354 February 13,657 March 14,536 April 13,478 May 16,590 June 19,790 July 17,987 August 18,657 September 19,765 October 18,678 November 20,678 December 23,675\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Sales } ( \mathbf { \$ 1 0 0 s } ) \\\hline \text { January } & 12,354 \\\hline \text { February } & 13,657 \\\hline \text { March } & 14,536 \\\hline \text { April } & 13,478 \\\hline \text { May } & 16,590 \\\hline \text { June } & 19,790 \\\hline \text { July } & 17,987 \\\hline \text { August } & 18,657 \\\hline \text { September } & 19,765 \\\hline \text { October } & 18,678 \\\hline \text { November } & 20,678 \\\hline \text { December } & 23,675 \\\hline\end{array}
a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for the next month?
b. Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for the next month?
c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast?

Correct Answer:

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a. blured image MSE = 42605309/11 = 3873209.91 » 387...

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