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The Medical Prognosis for a Patient with a Certain Disease

Question 30

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The medical prognosis for a patient with a certain disease is to recover, to die, to exhibit symptom 1, or to exhibit symptom 2. The matrix of transition probabilities is  Recover  Die S1 S2 Recover 1000 Die 0100 S11/41/41/31/6 S21/41/81/81/2\begin{array} { c | c c c c } & \text { Recover } & \text { Die } & \mathrm { S } _ { 1 } & \mathrm {~S} _ { 2 } \\\hline \text { Recover } & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\\text { Die } & 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 \\\mathrm {~S} _ { 1 } & 1 / 4 & 1 / 4 & 1 / 3 & 1 / 6 \\\mathrm {~S} _ { 2 } & 1 / 4 & 1 / 8 & 1 / 8 & 1 / 2\end{array}
a.What are the absorbing states?
b.What is the probability that a patient with symptom 2 will recover?

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a.States 1 and 2 (recover and ...

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