In the early 2000s, economists and firms worked with a research arm of the Pentagon (specifically, DARPA) to develop prediction markets for national security purposes. One of the potential shares for trading would have been the event of a terrorist attack (the entire project was later canceled in 2003 because of publicity issues). What would intelligence agencies have looked at to determine the likelihood of a terrorist attack at any particular time?
A) the volume of trading
B) the price of the share
C) the level of fluctuation of the volume of trading
D) the level of fluctuation of the price

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The price of the share in a prediction market reflects the collective belief of participants about the likelihood of an event occurring, such as a terrorist attack.

In the Early 2000s, Economists and Firms Worked with a Research