A firm uses trend projection and seasonal factors to simulate sales for a given time period. It assigns "0" if sales fall, "1" if sales are steady, "2" if sales rise moderately, and "3" if sales rise a lot. The simulator generates the following output. 0102200123202022123122203002121
Estimate the probability that sales will rise at least moderately.
A) $0.613$
B) $0.516$
C) $0.512$
D) $0.452$

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The probability that sales will rise at least moderately (i.e., "2" or "3") is calculated by counting the number of "2"s and "3"s in the sequence and dividing by the total number of entries. There are 16 occurrences of "2" and "3" out of 31 total entries, so the probability is $16/31 \approx 0.516$.

A Firm Uses Trend Projection and Seasonal Factors to Simulate 0.6130.6130.613

A Firm Uses Trend Projection and Seasonal Factors to Simulate $0.613$