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A Few Years Ago the News Magazine the Economist Listed

Question 24

Essay

A few years ago the news magazine The Economist listed some of the stranger
explanations used in the past to predict presidential election outcomes.These included
whether or not the hemlines of women's skirts went up or down, stock market
performances, baseball World Series wins by an American League team, etc.Thinking
about this problem more seriously, you decide to analyze whether or not the presidential
candidate for a certain party did better if his party controlled the house.Accordingly you
collect data for the last 34 presidential elections.You think of this data as comprising a
population which you want to describe, rather than a sample from which you want to
infer behavior of a larger population.You generate the accompanying table: Joint Distribution of Presidential Party Affiliation and Party Control of House of Representatives, 1860-1996
 Democratic Control  of House (Y=0) Republican Control  of House (Y=1) Total  Democratic  President (X=0)0.4120.0300.441 Republican  President (X=1)0.1760.3820.559 Total 0.5880.4121.00\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \begin{array}{c}\text { Democratic Control } \\\text { of House }(Y=0)\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}\text { Republican Control } \\\text { of House }(Y=1)\end{array} & \text { Total } \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { Democratic } \\\text { President }(X=0)\end{array} & 0.412 & 0.030 & 0.441 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { Republican } \\\text { President }(X=1)\end{array} & 0.176 & 0.382 & 0.559 \\\hline \text { Total } & 0.588 & 0.412 & 1.00\\\hline\end{array}
(a)Interpret one of the joint probabilities and one of the marginal probabilities.

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