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Consider the GARCH (1,1) Model σt2=α0+α1ut12+ϕ1σt12\sigma _ { t } ^ { 2 } = \alpha _ { 0 } + \alpha _ { 1 } u _ { t - 1 } ^ { 2 } + \phi _ { 1 } \sigma _ { t - 1 } ^ { 2 }

Question 22

Essay

Consider the GARCH (1,1) model σt2=α0+α1ut12+ϕ1σt12\sigma _ { t } ^ { 2 } = \alpha _ { 0 } + \alpha _ { 1 } u _ { t - 1 } ^ { 2 } + \phi _ { 1 } \sigma _ { t - 1 } ^ { 2 } Show that this model can be
rewritten as σt2=α01ϕ1+α1(ut12+ϕ1ut22+ϕ12ut32+ϕ13ut42+)\sigma _ { t } ^ { 2 } = \frac { \alpha _ { 0 } } { 1 - \phi _ { 1 } } + \alpha _ { 1 } \left( u _ { t - 1 } ^ { 2 } + \phi _ { 1 } u _ { t - 2 } ^ { 2 } + \phi _ { 1 } ^ { 2 } u _ { t - 3 } ^ { 2 } + \phi _ { 1 } ^ { 3 } u _ { t - 4 } ^ { 2 } + \ldots \right) (Hint: use the GARCH(1,1) model but specify it for σt12\sigma _ { t - 1 } ^ { 2 } ; substitute this expression into the original specification, and so on.) Explain intuitively the meaning of the resulting formulation.

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