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You Have Decided to Use the Dickey Fuller (DF)test on the United

Question 30

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You have decided to use the Dickey Fuller (DF)test on the United States aggregate
unemployment rate (sample period 1962:I - 1995:IV).As a result, you estimate the
following AR(1)model Δ UrateUS t^=0.1140.024 UrateUS t1,R2=0.0118, SER =0.3417(0.121)(0.019)\begin{aligned}{\widehat{\Delta \text { UrateUS }_{t}}}{=} & 0.114-0.024 \text { UrateUS }_{\mathrm{t}-1}, R^{2}=0.0118, \text { SER }=0.3417 \\& (0.121)(0.019)\end{aligned}
You recall that your textbook mentioned that this form of the AR(1)is convenient
because it allows for you to test for the presence of a unit root by using the t- statistic of
the slope.Being adventurous, you decide to estimate the original form of the AR(1)
instead, which results in the following output Δ UrateUS t^=0.1140.024 UrateUS t1,R2=0.0118, SER =0.3417(0.121)(0.019)\begin{aligned}{\widehat{\Delta \text { UrateUS }_{t}}}{=} & 0.114-0.024 \text { UrateUS }_{\mathrm{t}-1}, R^{2}=0.0118, \text { SER }=0.3417 \\& (0.121)(0.019)\end{aligned}

You are surprised to find the constant, the standard errors of the two coefficients, and the SER unchanged, while the regression R2\mathrm { R } ^ { 2 } increased substantially. Explain this increase in the regression R2\mathrm { R } ^ { 2 } . Why should you have been able to predict the change in the slope coefficient and the constancy of the standard errors of the two coefficients and the SER?

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