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(Situation N) an Economist Wishes to Study the Monthly Trend E(Yt)=β0+β1t, where E \left( Y _ { t } \right) = \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } t _ { \text {, where } }

Question 20

Multiple Choice

(Situation N) An economist wishes to study the monthly trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) . Data collected over the past 40 months were used to fit the model E(Yt) =β0+β1t, where E \left( Y _ { t } \right) = \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } t _ { \text {, where } } , monthly close of the DJIA and t=t = month (1,2,3,,40) ( 1,2,3 , \ldots , 40 ) . The regression results appear below:
y^=88+0.25tR2=0.37 MSE =144F=4.25 Durbin-Watson d=0.96\hat { y } = 88 + 0.25 t \quad R ^ { 2 } = 0.37 \quad \text { MSE } = 144 \quad F = 4.25 \quad \text { Durbin-Watson } \mathrm { d } = 0.96
-Since the data are recorded over time (months) , there is a strong possibility that the residuals are positively correlated. How could you check for residual correlation using a graphical technique?


A) Plot the residuals against y^\hat { y } and look for a funnel shape.
B) Plot the residuals against y^\hat { y } and look for outliers.
C) Plot the residuals against tt and look for long runs of positive and negative residuals.
D) Plot the residuals against y^\hat { y } and look for a linear trend.

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