SCENARIO 16-4
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows.
-Referring to Scenario 16-3,if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 1/3,what would be the second value?
A)39
B)42
C)45
D)53

Question

SCENARIO 16-4
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. 
-Referring to Scenario 16-3,if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 1/3,what would be the second value?
A)39 
B)42 
C)45 
D)53

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The second value in exponential smoothing is calculated using the formula: $S_t = \alpha Y_{t-1} + (1 - \alpha)S_{t-1}$, where $S_t$ is the smoothed value at time t, $\alpha$ is the smoothing constant, and $Y_{t-1}$ is the actual value at time t-1. Without the actual series values, we can't calculate directly, but given the smoothing constant of 1/3, the process involves weighting the previous actual value and the previous smoothed value. Since we can't calculate the exact number without the initial values, the correct choice is based on the information that cannot be determined from the question as it stands. However, assuming the initial setup or the first actual value is provided or using the first actual value as the first smoothed value, the process would involve applying the formula. The misunderstanding here is due to the lack of specific data from the scenario, but the correct approach involves using the given smoothing constant and formula.

SCENARIO 16-4 the Number of Cases of Merlot Wine Sold by a by a Paso