SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log10 Yˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q1 - 0.054 Q2 + 0.098 Q3
where
Yˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q1 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q2 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q3 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,the estimated quarterly compound growth rate in revenues is around:
A) 1.2%.
B) 2.8%.
C) 12%.
D) 28%.
Correct Answer:
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