SCENARIO 16-14
a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

SCENARIO 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in
future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to
-The following is the resulting regression equation: $$\ln \hat { Y } = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q _ { 1 } + 1.28 Q _ { 2 } + 0.617 Q _ { 3 }$$
where $\hat { Y }$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
$X$ is the coded quarterly value with $X = 0$ in the first quarter of 2011 .
$Q _ { 1 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
$Q _ { 2 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
$Q _ { 3 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.