Chen Transport, a U.S. based company, is considering expanding its operations into a foreign country. The required investment at Time = 0 is $10 million. The firm forecasts total cash inflows of $4 million per year for 2 years, $6 million for the next 2 years, and then a possible terminal value of $8 million. In addition, due to political risk factors, Chen believes that there is a 50% chance that the gross terminal value will be only $2 million and a 50% chance that it will be
$8 million. However, the government of the host country will block 20% of all cash flows. Thus, cash flows that can be repatriated are 80% of those projected. Chen's cost of capital is 15%, but it adds one percentage point to all foreign projects to account for exchange rate risk. Under these conditions, what is the project's NPV?
A) $1.01 million
B) $2.77 million
C) $3.09 million
D) $5.96 million
E) $7.39 million

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The NPV is calculated by discounting the expected cash flows at the adjusted cost of capital (16%) and subtracting the initial investment. The expected terminal value is calculated as the weighted average of the possible terminal values, considering the probability and the 20% block on cash flows.