Suppose 1,000 experts flip a coin once each year and half say the market will go up, while the other half say the market will go down. After six years how many experts would have been correct every year?
A) 15
B) 62
C) 8
D) 31

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

There is a 50% chance of guessing correctly each year, so the probability of guessing correctly all six years is (1/2)^6 = 1/64. Therefore, out of 1,000 experts, 1,000 * (1/64) = 15.625 experts would have been correct every year. Since we cannot have a fraction of an expert, the closest integer is 15.

Suppose 1,000 Experts Flip a Coin Once Each Year and Half