Suppose that a friend is wondering what ever happened to a classmate named Bob who attended your high school and was on the wrestling team. You say that Bob is now a banker. Your friend says, "Well, Bob is likely to be a banker who is still interested in sports, rather than just a plain banker." Your friend has just demonstrated

Question

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Your friend has demonstrated the conjunction fallacy by assuming that a more specific condition (a banker who is still interested in sports) is more likely than a general one (just a banker), despite the fact that the probability of two events occurring together (in conjunction) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone.

Suppose That a Friend Is Wondering What Ever Happened to a Classmate