The Leading Economic Index sometimes predicts recessions that do not occur.

Question

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The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index of several economic indicators that are supposed to predict future economic activity. However, there have been instances where the LEI has suggested an upcoming recession, but a recession did not occur. This is because economic forecasting is not an exact science and unexpected events, such as policy changes or natural disasters, can have an impact on the economy.

The Leading Economic Index Sometimes Predicts Recessions That Do Not