Suppose that where you live,the middle of January is typically several degrees warmer than the rest of the month.If you forecast this "January thaw" for the middle of next January,you would have made a
A)forecast based on the analogue method.
B)persistence forecast.
C)forecast based on weather types.
D)probability forecast.
E)climatological forecast.

Question

Suppose that where you live,the middle of January is typically several degrees warmer than the rest of the month.If you forecast this "January thaw" for the middle of next January,you would have made a
A)forecast based on the analogue method.
B)persistence forecast.
C)​forecast based on weather types.
D)​probability forecast.
E)​climatological forecast.

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The "January thaw" phenomenon is a climatological pattern that is observed in the region where the person lives. Therefore, a climatological forecast, which is based on long-term climate data and patterns, would be the best choice to forecast this event. A persistence forecast (B) would only assume that the current weather conditions would continue, which may not be accurate in this case. The analogue method (A) and weather type forecast (C) are based on short-term patterns and may not capture the long-term climatological pattern. A probability forecast (D) is also not applicable in this case as the occurrence of the "January thaw" is not just a random event with probabilities assigned to it.

Suppose That Where You Live,the Middle of January Is Typically