Devin was worried about taking his statistics exam, even though he studied diligently. On the morning of the exam, he wore his favorite, softest shirt so that he would be comfortable during the test. When he received a surprisingly high grade, Devin said to himself, "I think it was the shirt; it is lucky and helped me do well." Which thinking error is Devin MOST likely making?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Devin is attributing his success on the exam to wearing his favorite shirt simply because the good performance followed the action of wearing the shirt. This is a classic example of post hoc reasoning, where one assumes that because one event followed another, the first event caused the second.

Devin Was Worried About Taking His Statistics Exam, Even Though