Paulo had a dream that his father would have a car accident. About a month later, his father was in an automobile accident. Recalling his dream, Paulo wondered if he had precognition and his dream had warned him of the future event. The MOST plausible explanation for Paulo's experience is that he:
A) did have precognition because the two events were most likely linked.
B) underestimated the probability of coincidental events occurring.
C) experienced a real connection between a mental prediction and a physical event.
D) connected the two events as an example of the conjunction fallacy.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The most plausible explanation for Paulo's experience is that he simply underestimated the probability of coincidental events occurring. People often have dreams or thoughts about future events that don't come true, but when they have one that does seem to come true, they may believe it was a sign. In reality, it is much more likely to be a coincidence. This is not to say that precognition is impossible, but it is not supported by scientific evidence.

Paulo Had a Dream That His Father Would Have a Car