Madison and Ashley were in many theater productions together, and Madison always said, "Break a leg" to Ashley before a performance. Although it seemed silly at first, Ashley came to believe that Madison's saying this to her really did give her luck before a performance. The kind of thinking error shown in this example is most similar to:

Question

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Ashley's belief that Madison's saying "Break a leg" brought her luck is an example of post-hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, where she assumes that because Madison's well-wishes happened before her successful performances, they must have caused those successes.

Madison and Ashley Were in Many Theater Productions Together, and Madison