After the first unit test in an education class, Professor Jones had students who received high scores study with students who received low scores. On this basis, he assigned Jorge, who scored 91%, to study with Consuela, who scored 65%. On the second test, Professor Jones observed that both Jorge and Consuela scored 75%; on the third test, Jorge scored 78% and Consuela scored 70%. Surprised by these results, the professor wondered if pairing students in this way was a bad strategy. The MOST plausible alternative explanation for these results is that:
A) Jorge's and Consuela's scores were regressing to their means.
B) Professor Jones has been deceived by appearances, biased by the availability heuristic.
C) Professor Jones has fallen prey to the conjunction fallacy.
D) Professor Jones is estimating after the fact, showing hindsight bias.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The phenomenon of regression to the mean suggests that individuals who score very high or very low on a test are likely to score closer to the mean on a subsequent test, simply due to chance factors. Therefore, the fact that both Jorge and Consuela scored the same after studying together suggests that their scores were merely reverting back to the mean. The subsequent scores on the third test are also consistent with this explanation.

After the First Unit Test in an Education Class, Professor