A large volcano sits in Eastern California in a popular vacation area. This volcano erupted catastrophically in prehistoric times. The area was geologically quiet for thousands of years. However, changes have occurred in recent decades. Many small earthquakes have been recorded, the volcano is releasing carbon dioxide gas, and its flanks are swelling. Scientists estimate from these observations that there is a 1 in 6 chance that the volcano will erupt at any time.
1. Should disaster officials warn the public? If so, what's the best way to explain the risk?
2. Should the area be evacuated?
3. What are some consequences of warning the public?
4. What are some consequences of not warning the public?
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