Cerra ltd. expects to receive 5 million euros tomorrow as a result of selling goods to the Netherlands. Cerra estimates the standard deviation of daily percentage changes of the euro to be 1 percent over the last 100 days. Assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. Using the value-at-risk (VAR) method based on a 95% confidence level, what is the maximum one-day loss in dollars if the expected percentage change of the euro tomorrow is 0.5%? The current spot rate of the euro (before considering the maximum one-day loss) is £0.67.
A) -£48,910
B) -£40,200
C) -£41.331
D) -£48,200
Correct Answer:
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