A victory at Antietam probably would have won Confederate independence because

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France and Britain were on the verge of recognizing the Confederate government because they relied heavily on Southern cotton for their textile industries. A Confederate victory at Antietam would have likely tipped the scales and led to international recognition of the Confederacy, which would have greatly strengthened their position and likely led to the independence they sought.

A Victory at Antietam Probably Would Have Won Confederate Independence