Malcolm has been watching a roulette-type game at a local charity bazaar. The game has only ten numbers on the wheel, and every number except 8 has come up as a winner during the last 15 minutes. Malcolm decides to bet R10 on number 8, because it has to come up eventually. In this case, Malcolm is showing evidence of

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Malcolm is exhibiting the gambler's fallacy, which is the belief that future probabilities are affected by past events when in reality they are independent. Just because number 8 hasn't come up recently doesn't mean it's more likely to come up now. Each spin of the wheel is an independent event with the same probability of landing on any given number.

Malcolm Has Been Watching a Roulette-Type Game at a Local