A manager who helped develop a new product that looks like it would be successful predicted a 90% chance of success for the new product.However, historical data indicate that of all new products introduced, only about 50% succeed.This suggests that the manager's prediction was guided primarily by the:
A)representativeness heuristic
B)availability heuristic
C)simulation heuristic
D)anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic
E)contrast effect

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The manager's prediction is based on the representativeness heuristic, as they are basing their prediction on how similar the new product is to other successful products they have seen. The fact that only 50% of new products succeed suggests that the manager's prediction is overly optimistic and not taking into account the base rate of success for new products.

A Manager Who Helped Develop a New Product That Looks