SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log10 Yˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q1 - 0.054 Q2 + 0.098 Q3
where
Yˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q1 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q2 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q3 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,the best interpretation of the coefficient of X (0.012) in the regression equation is:
A) the quarterly compound growth rate in revenues is around 2.8%.
B) the annual growth rate in revenues is around 2.8%.
C) the quarterly growth rate in revenues is around 1.2%.
D) the annual growth rate in revenues is around 1.2%.
Correct Answer:
Verified
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