Many people have heard that the US stock market rises when a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) wins the Super Bowl, and falls when a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) is victorious. If you conclude that there is a causal relationship between the outcome of the Super Bowl and stock prices, you probably are making what mistake?
A) You are committing the fallacy of composition.
B) You are violating the ceteris paribus assumption.
C) You are confusing correlation with causation.
D) You are confusing the direction of causality; stock prices determine which team wins the Super Bowl.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The mistake being made is confusing correlation with causation. Just because there is a correlation between the outcome of the Super Bowl and stock prices, it does not necessarily mean that one causes the other. There could be other variables at play that affect both. It is important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

Many People Have Heard That the US Stock Market Rises