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Being Careful Not to Make the Conjunction Fallacy, Which of the Following

Question 189

Multiple Choice

Being careful not to make the conjunction fallacy, which of the following is MOST probable?


A) Ralph is an alcoholic; Ralph wins a major world tennis tournament.
B) Ralph is an alcoholic; Ralph enters a treatment program; Ralph wins a major world tennis tournament.
C) Ralph is an alcoholic; Ralph enters a treatment program; Ralph has been sober for a year; Ralph wins a major world tennis tournament.
D) Ralph is an alcoholic; Ralph enters a treatment program; Ralph has been sober for a year; Ralph practices tennis 50 hours a week; Ralph wins a major world tennis tournament.

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