Montana and Sarah are playing cards. Montana has a great hand-four aces-while Sarah's hand is just average-a 2 of hearts, a 3 of spades, a 5 of spades, and a 7 of clubs. Even though the statistical probability of both hands is the same, many people (incorrectly)assume that Montana's exact hand is rarer than Sarah's exact hand. This common misconception stems most directly from the ____.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The misconception stems from the representativeness heuristic, where people judge the probability of an event by how much it seems to represent, or match, the typical case. Four aces seem more special or rare than a mix of low cards, even though each specific hand is equally likely.

Montana and Sarah Are Playing Cards