"As soon as I announced my 'get tough on crime' policy, criminals got scared and the crime rate went down." Suppose that the lower crime rate was actually caused by freezing cold temperatures in January--it was just too cold for anybody to be out robbing other people. Which fundamental economic mistake did the politician make?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The politician made the fundamental economic mistake of believing that association (between the announcement of their policy and the decrease in crime) is the same as causation. The decrease in crime may have been caused by external factors (freezing cold temperatures) rather than the policy itself. Therefore, the politician made an erroneous assumption about the cause-and-effect relationship between their policy and the decrease in crime.

"As Soon as I Announced My 'Get Tough on Crime