For a forecast to show ____, it should be better than one based solely on the current or the "normal" weather.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Skill refers to the ability of a forecast to outperform a reference forecast, such as one based only on the current weather or climatology (the "normal" weather). Therefore, for a forecast to show skill, it should be better than these reference forecasts. Accuracy is also important in a forecast, but it is a more general term that does not necessarily indicate improvement over reference forecasts. Chaos and persistence are not relevant to the concept of forecast quality in this context.

For a Forecast to Show ____, It Should Be Better