Stephon knows someone whose brother received a very lucrative contract to play professional basketball for the National Basketball Association (NBA).With this success story in mind,he ignores the statistics that indicate a very low probability that anyone will make it to the NBA and overestimates his own chances of making it.This scenario best illustrates

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Stephon is ignoring the base rate or general probability of making it to the NBA, focusing instead on a specific instance, which leads to an overestimation of his own chances. This is an example of the base-rate fallacy.

Stephon Knows Someone Whose Brother Received a Very Lucrative Contract