A politician campaigns on a platform of eliminating parole. One ad used by the politician says, "The early release of prison inmates leads to a higher crime rate. Inmates who are released early are not sufficiently punished and will, on average, recidivate more than inmates who are not released early." Construct a plausible alternative explanation for recidivism that does not involve an effect of early release on recidivism, but which does allow for their association.
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