Eighty percent of people who live in your community are republicans.At a town event you are introduced to Jim who tells you he is pro choice on the issue of abortion.Based on this information,you incorrectly conclude that Jim is a democrat.Your failure to take into account the number of people who are republicans when making your judgment about Jim illustrates an example of:

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The base rate fallacy refers to the tendency to ignore the overall rate or probability of an event when making judgments about specific instances. In this case, the overall rate of republicans in the community is high, so even though Jim's pro-choice stance might be more commonly associated with Democrats, it is still possible for him to be a Republican. Ignoring the base rate of Republicans in the community led to the base rate fallacy.

Eighty Percent of People Who Live in Your Community Are