Several researchers claimed that incapacitation would prevent a large amount of crime. It turns out that this claim was greatly exaggerated, in part because researchers failed to consider what is called a:

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The substitution effect refers to the phenomenon where preventing a potential criminal from committing a crime does not necessarily prevent the crime itself, as another individual may simply take their place. This oversight in considering the substitution effect led to the overestimation of the impact of incapacitation on crime reduction.

Several Researchers Claimed That Incapacitation Would Prevent a Large Amount