Which of the Following Is the Best Example of Probabilistic

Which of the following is the best example of probabilistic causation?

A) The fact that one is Republican makes it more likely that one is pro-life on the issue of abortion.
B) One billiard ball striking another billiard ball and propelling it on a trajectory fixed by mechanical laws.
C) Someone dying is a constitutive part of murder.
D) Exposure to the sun increases one's probability of developing skin cancer.