Which of the following situations best exemplifies the gambler's fallacy?
A) Tony turns down a bet of $100 in which he would have a chance of winning $500 but makes a bet of $10 in which he has a chance of winning only $12.
B) Brenda turns down a bet in which she would have a 10 percent chance of losing $50 but makes a bet in which she has a 90 percent chance of winning $10.
C) Tina believes that her chances of winning the lottery within a year will go down if she plays the same numbers every week.
D) Tyson believes that his chances of winning the next raffle drawing have improved because he has lost five drawings in a row.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that previous outcomes affect future outcomes when, in reality, they do not. Tyson's belief that his chances of winning the next raffle drawing have improved because he has lost five drawings in a row exemplifies this fallacy. In reality, the probability of winning each drawing is independent of previous outcomes, so losing previous drawings does not increase or decrease the chances of winning the next one.

Which of the Following Situations Best Exemplifies the Gambler's Fallacy