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Suppose That 50,000 Women Who Have Never Had a Breast

Question 189

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Suppose that 50,000 women who have never had a breast cancer diagnosis are available and willing to participate in a new screening program of computerized digital mammography. One thousand one hundred thirty-two (1132) women had a positive screening test. All of these positive women had a breast biopsy, and 136 were diagnosed with breast cancer. Of the 48,868 who screened "negative" on the test, 24 were in fact in the detectable pre-clinical phase. This was determined by following these women and observing that all 24 were diagnosed with breast cancer within one year of the screening test.
-Lead time bias makes it erroneously appear that survival is better for screened versus unscreened cases.

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