A firm has determined that its average level of sales (St) per week in thousands of dollars during a given year depends on the previous year's level of sales (St-1), the previous year's level of advertising (At-1) per month in thousands of dollars, and the current year's rate of annual industry growth (Gt) in percentage terms. The firm has also determined that the level of industry growth in the current period depends on the previous period's rate of industry growth (Gt-1) and on current period sales by the firm. During the current period, the firm's level of sales was $100,000, advertising was $40,000, and the rate of growth in the industry was 4 percent. The firm estimated the following two-equation econometric model:
St = 4 + 0.40St-1 + 0.10At-1 + Gt and Gt = 1 + 0.5Gt-1 + 0.5St
(i)Formulate a single-equation forecasting equation from this model.
(ii)Forecast the level of sales in the next period.
Correct Answer:
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