One way to see the effects of electoral reward and punishment is to look at the number of votes for members of Congress that the incumbent party wins in off-year elections.

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Off-year elections are important indicators of electoral reward and punishment because these elections typically take place midway between presidential elections when voter turnout is lower, which can make the results more reflective of the electorate's true preferences. The number of votes for members of Congress that the incumbent party wins in off-year elections can be used to gauge how voters are responding to the party's performance in government and their satisfaction with the economy, foreign policy, and other important issues.

One Way to See the Effects of Electoral Reward and Punishment