After watching the winner of American Idol tell her story of going from a simple girl to a famous singer,Sun was convinced that she too could be on the show and become famous.Sun's reaction demonstrates how people tend to ____. exaggerate the expected value of a future outcome
A) overestimate the probability of unlikely events
B) believe that future events in a random process will be affected by past events
C) ignore negative evidence when making a decision

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Sun's reaction suggests that she is overestimating the probability of her becoming famous through American Idol, which is an unlikely event. This tendency is common among people when they are emotionally invested in a particular outcome or have a strong desire for it to happen. They tend to focus on the positive aspects and ignore the negative factors, leading them to exaggerate the expected value of the future outcome.

After Watching the Winner of American Idol Tell Her Story