A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | }
\hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Attendance } \
\hline \text { Four Years ago } & 10,000 \
\hline \text { Three Years ago } & 12,000 \
\hline \text { Two Years ago } & 18,000 \
\hline \text { Last Year } & 20,000 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?
A) 22,000
B) 20,000
C) 18,000
D) 15,000
E) 12,000

Question

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Attendance } \
\hline \text { Four Years ago } & 10,000 \
\hline \text { Three Years ago } & 12,000 \
\hline \text { Two Years ago } & 18,000 \
\hline \text { Last Year } & 20,000 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?
A) 22,000
B) 20,000
C) 18,000
D) 15,000
E) 12,000

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The naive approach assumes that the attendance for this year will be the same as last year. Last year's attendance was 20,000, so this year's forecast is also 20,000.

A Concert Promoter Is Forecasting This Year's Attendance for One