Even though he knows only a small percentage of high school athletes go on to professional careers,Charlie believes that he will be drafted by a good Junior team,play for Team Canada in the World Juniors Championship,and then have a career in the NHL.What is Charlie doing

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Charlie is not applying base rates to himself because he is ignoring the statistical likelihood (or base rates) of high school athletes making it to professional careers and instead believes he will be an exception to these statistics.

Even Though He Knows Only a Small Percentage of High