Koriat, Bjork, Sheffer, and Bar (2004) examined people's abilities to anticipate forgetting.One group's judgments of learning were directed at a test to be taken in 10 minutes whereas another groups' judgments of learning were directed at a test to be taken 1 week later.They found that:

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The study found that the judgments of learning were identical for both groups, even though the group with the 1-week retention interval recalled fewer items than the group with the 10-minute retention interval. This suggests that people are not accurate in their judgments of learning and tend to overestimate their abilities to remember information over longer periods of time. The stability bias (choice A) refers to the tendency for people to expect their memory to remain stable over time, which was not found to be the case in this study. Choice B is similar to choice A in that it suggests participants were not accurate in their judgments, but it does not account for the finding that the judgments were identical for both groups. Choice D is incorrect because the study did find that the judgments of learning were related to performance, in that participants with the longer retention interval recalled fewer items than those with the shorter interval.

Koriat, Bjork, Sheffer, and Bar (2004) Examined People's Abilities to Anticipate