Bob is a contestant on a trivia quiz show.For every state capital he can correctly identify,he will win $1,000.However,before identifying any capitals,he must decide how many he thinks he can correctly identify.If he cannot identify as many as he has wagered,Bob will not win any money.Suppose Bob says that he can correctly identify 42 state capitals for a potential payoff of $42,000.According to studies of human decision-making,what is most likely to happen?
A) Bob will be able to identify 42 state capitals and he will win $42,000.
B) Bob will be able to identify fewer than 42 state capitals and will not win any money.
C) Bob will not be able to identify any state capitals and will not win any money.
D) Bob will choose to save all of the money he wins on the quiz show for his retirement.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

According to studies of human decision-making, people tend to overestimate their abilities, which means Bob is more likely to overestimate his ability to correctly identify state capitals as well. Therefore, it is most likely that he will not be able to correctly identify all 42 state capitals he has wagered and will not win any money.

Bob Is a Contestant on a Trivia Quiz Show