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The Dollar Department Store Chain Has the Opportunity of Acquiring State Of The EconomyOver The Next 5 Years\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\text{State Of The Economy}\\\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\text{Over The Next 5 Years}

Question 47

Short Answer

The Dollar Department Store chain has the opportunity of acquiring either 3,5,or 10 leases from the bankrupt Granite Variety Store chain.Dollar estimates the profit potential of the leases depends on the state of the economy over the next five years.There are four possible states of the economy as modeled by Dollar Department Stores and its president estimates P(s1)= .4,P(s2)= .3,P(s3)= .1,and P(s4)= .2.The utility has also been estimated.Given the payoffs (in $1,000,000's)and utility values below,which decision should Dollar make? Payo ff Table State Of The EconomyOver The Next 5 Years\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\text{State Of The Economy}\\\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\text{Over The Next 5 Years}
Decisions1s2s3s4\hlined1 buy 10 leases 105020d2 buy 5 leases 50110d3 buy 3 leases 2101d4 do not buy 0000\begin{array}{l|rrrr}Decision&s_{1} &s_{2} &s_{3} &s_{4} \\\hlined_{1}--\text { buy } 10 \text { leases } & 10 & 5 & 0 & -20 \\d_{2}--\text { buy } 5 \text { leases } & 5 & 0 & -1 & -10 \\d_{3}--\text { buy 3 leases } & 2 & 1 & 0 & -1 \\d_{4}--\text { do not buy } & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0\end{array} Utility Table  Payoff ( in $1,000,000s)+10+5+2011020 Utility +10+5+2012050\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r } \text { Payoff } ( \text { in } \$ 1,000,000 ' s ) & + 10 & + 5 & + 2 & 0 & - 1 & - 10 & - 20 \\\hline \text { Utility } & + 10 & + 5 & + 2 & 0 & - 1 & - 20 & - 50\end{array}

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