A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below. The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are:
With w = .2,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 125.60
With w = .5,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.75
With w = .6,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.55
Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best?

Question

A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below.

The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are:
With w = .2,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 125.60
With w = .5,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.75
With w = .6,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.55
Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best?

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The Answer of A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below. The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are: With w = .2,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 125.60 With w = .5,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.75 With w = .6,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.55 Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best?

A Time Series for the Years 1996-2001 Is Shown Below